EN-ROADS is a climate change simulator that helps people visualize connections between climate change and human activities. Within the simulator, people can forecast climate change scenarios based on enacting certain environmental policies such as highly taxing non-renewable resources or electrifying the transportation sector.
The following activity was created to educate students on various climate change impacts while also opening conversations around climate change solutions. The activity covers carbon pricing and energy efficiency simulations, and also allows for students to create their own solution simulations.
The following activity is adapted from a lab created by Travis Rector, an astronomer at the University of Alaska. Within the activity, students explore climate change solutions using the EN-ROADS Climate Simulator. Start the simulator.
The goal of the activity is to use EN-ROADS to find ways to reduce our carbon footprint so that the temperature doesn’t increase by 2100 to more than 2.0°C (3.6°F). This is an important goal because scientists believe we can avoid the worst consequences of climate change if we can keep the temperature below that level. If we continue with “business as usual” (i.e., continue to do things as we are doing them now) it is estimated that the temperature increase will be more than 4°C. This increase would cause multiple issues for the planet and human society at large. By graphing different outcomes, we can see how our societal choices can have a huge impact on the severity of climate change.
Once you open the simulator, you will see two graphs at the top of the screen. Click on the ‘Simulation’ menu at the upper left-hand corner and select ‘reset policies and assumptions.’ If you get stuck throughout the activity, this action will allow you to reset the simulation to its normal state.
Then, click on the ‘Graphs’ menu next to the Simulation menu. Select ‘Impacts’ then select ‘CO2 concentration.’
The two graphs on your screen should look like the ones below.
The left-hand graph shows the global sources of primary energy. Here, we see that coal, oil, and gas make up a significant amount of primary energy, with renewables, bioenergy and nuclear making up a lesser amount.
The right-hand graph shows the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere based off of the emissions that our current global sources of primary energy produce.
Question: Looking at the right-hand graph, what will the CO2 concentration be in 2100 if we don’t make any changes? What will the temperature increase b y 2100 be if we don’t make any changes?
Carbon Pricing
Carbon pricing is a strategy utilized that captures the external costs of greenhouse gas emissions, such as damage to crops and/or the environment, health ailments due to heat waves, and loss of property from flooding and sea level rise, and factors the external costs into their emission sources. For example, coal as a resource produces greenhouse gas emissions. If coal were to be a part of a carbon pricing scheme, then the price of coal would reflect the potential damage its emissions might cause to the environment and to humans. In this sense, the price of coal would go up, and energy companies may choose low-carbon energy sources such as renewables or bioenergy as an alternative.
Click on the ‘Graphs’ menu and select ‘Financial’. Then, select ‘Cost of Energy.’ The two graphs on your screen should look like the ones below.
The graph on the left-hand side shows the cost of energy in $ per gigajoule. One
gigajoule is equivalent to the amount of energy in eight gallons of gasoline.
Question: Looking at the left-hand graph, what will the cost of energy be in 2100 if we don’t enact carbon pricing?
At the bottom left-hand side of your screen, there is a list of different energy sources and policies under ‘Energy Supply.’ Take the sliding scale under ‘Carbon Price’ and move it all the way to the right. The Carbon Price should have moved from ‘status quo’ to ‘very high.’
Question: If a ‘very high’ carbon pricing scheme is put in place, what will happen to the cost of energy from 2020 to 2100?
Question: What happens to the CO2 concentration from 2020 to 2100?
Question: Did enacting carbon pricing decrease the amount of temperature increase by 2100? If so, why?
Move the sliding scale under ‘Carbon Price’ back to status quo. Then, take Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas and move them to the left to ‘highly taxed.’
Question: If coal, oil, and natural gas are ‘highly taxed’, what will happen to the cost of energy from 2020-2100? Is it similar or different to carbon pricing being enacted?
Question: Is the temperature increase more or less than the temperature increase under carbon pricing? Why might this be the case?
To reset the graphs, click on the house icon at the top middle of the screen. To reset the simulation, click on ‘Simulation’ at the top left-hand corner and select ‘reset policies and assumptions’.
Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency is a reduction in the amount of energy required to provide the same standard or amount of products and services. For example, over the past few years, light bulbs have become increasingly more efficient, meaning that they have a longer lifespan than a light bulb had previously. Though certain energy efficient bulbs have a higher cost, their efficiency over their lifecycle saves consumers energy costs in the long run.
Here, we are going to see how a change in energy efficiency via ‘Transport’ and Buildings and Industry’ might affect CO2 concentrations and temperature rise by 2100.
Click on the ‘Graphs’ menu next to the Simulation menu. Select ‘Impacts’ then select ‘CO2 concentration.’ Below, move the sliding scale of ‘Energy Efficiency’ under ‘Transport’ all the way to the right to where it says ‘Highly increased.’ Then, move the sliding scale of ‘Energy Efficiency’ under ‘Buildings and Industry’ all the way to the right where it says ‘Highly increased.’
The two graphs on your screen should look like the ones below.
Question: How did the exajoules per year change from 2020 to 2100 on the left-hand graph? How did the CO2 concentration change on the right-hand graph?
Question: Did changing the energy efficiency in these two sectors [transport and buildings and industry] change the temperature increase by 2100? In what way?
Now, move the sliding scale of ‘Electrification’ to ‘highly incentivized’ for both ‘Transport’ and ‘Buildings and Industry’ as well.
Question: What impact did the electrification of these two sectors have on both the CO2 concentration and temperature increase? Are you surprised by this?
Question: Are there any other sectors that you can think of that can be more energy efficient or electrified?
To reset the graphs, click on the house icon at the top middle of the screen. To reset the simulation, click on ‘Simulation’ at the top left-hand corner and select ‘reset policies and assumptions’.
Making Your Own Scenario
As shown with the above scenarios, there is no one ‘silver bullet’ for fixing climate change. Each action poised to fix climate change has other implications for society at large. For example, if carbon pricing is utilized, how might those policies affect the economy? We’d like to keep the cost of energy down for the economy to grow, but what would a high increase in cost of energy do? Would it keep temperatures from increasing? These are all questions that should be addressed when thinking about climate change fixes.
In the following activity, you are tasked with adjusting the sliding scales until the temperature increase is below 2 C and the cost of energy stays near or below what it is now.
Click on the ‘Graphs’ menu next to the Simulation menu. Select ‘Impacts’ then select ‘Temperature change.’
Click on the ‘Graphs’ menu next to the Simulation menu. Select ‘Financial’ then select ‘Cost of Energy.’
Move the sliding scales to create future climate change scenarios. Below is an example of a scenario in which the cost of energy stays near or below what it is now, and the temperature increase is below 2 C.
Once you have figured out your own scenario, click on the ‘Share Your Scenario’ button in the upper right-hand corner and select ‘Copy Scenario Link.’
Question: Post your scenario link here.
Question: What did you have to do in order to fit the scenario? Are you surprised by certain actions working and others not?