Activity 1.2

WV ClimateLink is an online atlas, tool, and educational resource that provides educators, communities, and decision makers with data, maps, visualizations, and learning activities that explore the effects of changing air temperature and precipitation on West Virginia’s communities, economies, and ecosystems. The activities below can be modified for any of the climate variables and related to just about any topic including floods, droughts, household and business heating/air conditioning costs, hatch emergence (e.g. for fly fishing), ticks and mosquitos, fall leaf colors, etc.

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WV ClimateLink provides information on West Virginia’s historic (1980-2010) and future (2020-2099 in 20-year periods) air temperature and precipitation. Future climate is for two emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The following climate variables are included in standard (e.g., degree Fahrenheit, °F) and metric (e.g., degree Celsius, °C) units:

• Average annual precipitation
• Average annual air temperature
• Average # of days below freezing threshold
• Average # of days above high heat threshold
• Average monthly precipitation for winter over January, February, March
• Average monthly precipitation for summer over June, July, August
• Average monthly air temp for winter over January, February, March
• Average monthly air temp for summer over June, July, AugustAll data can be downloaded using the ‘Download RCP 4.5 Data’ and ‘Download RCP 8.5 Data’ tabs located below the map.

Access THE CLIMATE MAP on WV ClimateLink

Part 1.

1. ‘THE CLIMATE MAP’ shows various climate variables for counties throughout WV. The default display is for ‘Average Annual Air Temperature (°F)’ for the 1980-2010 (Historical) period.

Question: Do you notice any patterns in Average Annual Air Temperature for counties throughout WV? What would explain the differences in cooler vs warmer counties?

2. Select and click on a county in ‘THE CLIMATE MAP’. Below is a screenshot of what your screen should look like.  

Question: What county did you select? What is the historical Average Annual Air Temperature for this county?

3. Select a future time period (2020-2039; 2040-2059; 2060-2079; 2080-2099) by clicking on a future time period tab (1) then use the RCP dropdown menu (2) to select the RCP 8.5 high emissions scenario.  

Question: What is the projected future Average Annual Air Temperature for your selected county in (°F)? [Additional activity – convert from °F to °C].

Select the ‘Change from Historic’ tab (3) to calculate the absolute change (Future-Historic) between your selected future period and the historic period. How is Average Annual Air Temperature for your selected county expected to change?

4. Repeat 1 and 2 for ‘Average Annual Precipitation’.

Question: What does the map of West Virginia look like under a high emissions scenario? What types of changes do you see in different regions throughout the state?

Question: Now select your county. What is the historical Average Annual Precipitation for your selected county? 

Question: How does Average Annual Precipitation change in the future for your selected future period in your county?

5. A helpful way to understand future changes are to compare them to the past. For air temperature, this is done by calculating the absolute change, the difference between future and past air temperature: Future-Past. Absolute changes are expressed in the original units of air temperature. Changes in precipitation are expressed as the relative change as a percent change from the past: (Future-Past/Past) x 100. Calculate the absolute and relative changes for air temperature and precipitation for your selected county and future time period.

Question: Calculate the absolute change in future air temperature and relative change precipitation based on RCP 8.5 compared to the past. How are future air temperature and precipitation projected to change in the future?

6. ‘Average # of Days Below Freezing’ describes the number of cold days in a year that are below freezing. Repeat the above analysis for the ‘Average # of Days Below Freezing’ for RCP 8.5.

Question: Historically, on average, how many days have been below freezing for your selected county? 

Question:  Describe how the ‘Average # of Days Below Freezing’ are projected to change for your county and time period based on RCP 8.5?

7. Select ‘Change from Historic’ and toggle through the different future time periods. Describe how the ‘Average # of Days Below 32°F’ are projected to change across the state of WV.

Question:   Describe how the ‘Average # of Days Below 32°F’ are projected to change across time periods and the state based on RCP 8.5. Describe any patterns you see.

8. Repeat the above analysis for the ‘Average # of Days Above 95°F’ for RCP 8.5.

Question:  Describe how the ‘Average # of Days Above 95°F’ are projected to change across time periods and the state based on RCP 8.5. Describe any patterns you see.

Activity Summary Questions:

Question: What are some of the ways that changes (increases or decreases) in air temperature and precipitation can affect the quality of life for West Virginians? What about ecosystems? 

Question: What are some of the ways that changes (increases or decreases) in freezing (<32°F) and hot (>95°F) can affect the quality of life for West Virginians? What about ecosystems? 

Question: What are some factors that contribute to higher emissions? 

Question: Given the predicted changes climate variables, how cancitizens, business owners, and decision makers in your county use this information? 

Summary Activity:

Create your own exercise than can be used by your family, church, school, and community members to understand West Virginia’s climate past and future climate.